Reverse Bradley Effect

Some have suggested that an Obama victory on November 4 could be derailed by the emergence of the “Bradley effect,” hearkening back to the 1982 California Governor’s race where Tom Bradley, an African American candidate, polled high but ultimately scored low with voters and lost the election. Many attributed Bradley’s loss to the idea that while most Californians said publicly that they would vote for Bradley, they couldn’t bring themselves to actually vote for an African American man once the polling station curtain closed behind them.

I have for several months now felt that America might see the Bradley effect in this election—but this time, in reverse. Many Americans in conservative parts of the country may nod their heads in agreement with their families, friends and fellow churchgoers who express support for the Republican ticket and/or disdain for the Democratic ticket and Mr. Obama specifically.

But once they duck into their polling place, they are free to vote for Obama, and nobody will ever know their secret.

My largely instinctive belief in a reverse Bradley effect has been based on the simple reality that America is not where it was in 1982—we have entered a new era in which racism, though far from being eradicated, is not quite as pervasive, ugly or acceptable. And Mr. Obama has been campaigning for nearly two years—enough time for many early skeptics to warm to him and confidently support his candidacy. So even though a community may identify as conservative, there may be a critical mass of voters within those communities who are quietly supporting Obama.

I was encouraged today, when I was phonebanking to Indiana voters on behalf of the Obama campaign. Indiana of course is a "swing" state but has many conservative voters, many of which I spoke with on the phone and many of whom slammed the phone down when I said I said I am a volunteer for Obama's campaign. (One quite charming Indiana voter said he "ain't voting for no half-breed.")

However I spoke with one Indiana woman who, after I identified myself as an Obama volunteer, asked me in a low, hesitant voice “When I vote, will anyone know who I vote for?”

“No,” I replied, “The decision you make at the polling place is confidential. Nobody will ever know who you vote for.”

“Okay,” she said, sounding reassured. “Well, I plan to vote for Obama.”

This woman may express hesitance because she lives in a state that is generally a red state and she clearly has conservative McCain supporters around her. She may live among people whose identities are intertwined with being “conservative” and/or “Republican” and whose political discourse reflects this. She may not feel comfortable voicing her opinion given the political climate in which she lives. But this woman, and the people surrounding her, are also watching the news, hearing the speeches of both candidates, feeling the effects of a flailing economy and the Iraqi occupation, and in light of all of the above, at least some of them may want to vote Democratic this time around.

And they don’t have to tell anybody.